Will SpaceX Reshape the Future of Energy?

The capital frenzy sparked by SpaceX’s IPO has clearly revealed that the U.S.-China space-based solar power race is accelerating from the technology validation phase toward industrial implementation. However, constrained by costs and geopolitical dynamics, it is unlikely to independently reshape the global energy landscape in the short term; rather, it serves primarily as a strategic supplementary option for the future.

I. SpaceX’s IPO: The Key Event That Sparked the Capital Frenzy
1. The Largest IPO in History Listed on Nasdaq
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX went public on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.
The offering price was set at $135 per share, raising a total of $75 billion—a new record for IPO fundraising in global capital markets.
On its first day of trading, the stock price surged 19.23%, with the closing market capitalization exceeding $2.1 trillion.

2. Investment Priorities and Core Businesses
The proceeds will be primarily invested in four key areas: the Starlink low-Earth orbit satellite constellation, mass production of Starship reusable rockets, a space-based AI computing network, and space-based solar power.
SpaceX has announced its long-term strategy: to launch Starlink satellites in large numbers over the next decade, deploy in-orbit solar power stations, and elevate space-based solar power to a core business segment of the group.

3. The Chinese Factor in the Supply Chain
From gallium to polysilicon, and from photovoltaic materials to key manufacturing processes, China controls the world’s core production capacity.
China’s export controls on strategic materials such as gallium and germanium have significantly raised overseas refining costs and procurement barriers.
SpaceX’s large-scale construction of orbital infrastructure requires vast amounts of critical raw materials, and its supply chain is highly dependent on China.

II. Space PV: The Core Battleground of the U.S.-China Competition
1. Unique Advantages of Space PV
The space environment is free from cloud cover and atmospheric obstruction, providing uninterrupted sunlight; theoretical power generation efficiency can reach more than five times that of ground-based PV.
The vacuum of space provides natural cooling conditions, which are conducive to the operation of high-energy-consumption facilities such as AI data centers.
Solar panels can be folded for launch and deployed in orbit, allowing for flexible expansion of surface area and offering exceptional adaptability.

2. Technology Pathways: The Evolution from Crystalline Silicon to Perovskite
Traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaic panels are heavy and have relatively weak radiation resistance, making them unsuitable for the harsh conditions of satellite launches.
Flexible perovskite photovoltaics are thin, rollable, and feature high photovoltaic conversion efficiency; they are widely recognized as the mainstream technology path for space photovoltaics.
P-type HJT (heterojunction) is regarded as the preferred solution during the commercialization transition phase due to its excellent radiation resistance and lightweight characteristics.

3. U.S. Strategy: Musk’s Blueprint for Space Energy
In January 2026, Musk revealed that Tesla and SpaceX plan to each build a solar cell factory in the U.S. with an annual production capacity of 100 GW over the next three years.
SpaceX has submitted a building permit application to Texas to construct a solar cell factory with an annual production capacity of 10 GW, with products exclusively supplied to Starlink satellites and future space-based AI data centers.
Musk outlined a long-term plan: to deploy 100 GW of AI computing power annually via satellite launches, thereby building a network of orbital data centers.

4. China’s Strategy: Comprehensive Positioning from Materials to Complete Satellites
JinkoSolar has launched the “Nebula-1” space-grade tandem cell, designed specifically for low-Earth orbit satellites.
Dongfang Sunrise has achieved mass production of 50-micrometer ultra-thin P-type HJT space cells and is supplying them in bulk to SpaceX, accounting for approximately 30% of Starlink’s procurement volume.
Junda Co., Ltd. has secured a foothold in space PV and complete satellite capabilities by taking a stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng Technology and acquiring Fuyao Xinghe Aerospace, thereby expanding into satellite manufacturing and constellation operations.
JinkoSolar, in collaboration with Jiajia Weichuang, Saiwu Technology, and others, has launched the “Space Energy Technology Ecosystem Alliance.”
Companies such as Trina Solar and GCL Solar have already initiated in-orbit validation tests.

III. The Global Energy Landscape: Potential and Reality of Space-Based Photovoltaics (SBPV)
1. Long-term Vision: A Trillion-Dollar Market Opportunity
CSC Financial projects that if the deployment of space-based data centers reaches the 100 GW scale, the global market size could range from $500 billion to $1 trillion.
Central China Securities forecasts that annual global newly installed SBPV capacity will surge from approximately 0.18 GW in 2026 to over 90 GW by 2035.
In the short term, the networking of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites is the primary demand driver; in the long term, space-based computing centers will unlock a much larger market.

2. Real-World Bottlenecks: Constraints of Technology, Cost, and Time
Currently, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for SBPV is around $2–$3 per kWh, whereas terrestrial PV has dropped to $0.03–$0.05 per kWh—a disparity of up to a hundredfold.
Unless future launch costs fall to less than one-tenth of current levels and PV efficiency doubles, SBPV will struggle to achieve economic viability.
The space environment—characterized by extreme temperature fluctuations of up to 300°C, intense cosmic radiation, and atomic oxygen corrosion—imposes rigorous demands on solar cell longevity and system reliability.
Large-scale commercial deployment will require another 8 to 10 years of development.
Industry insiders acknowledge that the terrestrial PV sector is currently facing profitability pressures, with most companies prioritizing the stabilization of their core businesses.

3. Geopolitical Constraints
Washington frequently severs US-China technology ties citing "national security," thereby exacerbating supply chain barriers for US commercial space enterprises.
While Elon Musk is pushing for supply chain autonomy, China's export controls on critical raw materials remain a significant constraint.
The US-China race in SBPV is essentially a manifestation of the broader global struggle for technological sovereignty within the commercial space sector.

IV. Conclusion: A Strategic Supplement, Not a Total Replacement
In the short term, SBPV cannot replace terrestrial PV as a primary energy source, yet it holds the potential to serve as a strategic supplement to future energy systems.
The competition between the US and China across technology, supply chains, and capital will accelerate the technological maturation and cost reduction of SBPV. The commercialization of space-based photovoltaics hinges on the continued reduction of commercial space launch costs, breakthroughs in novel cell technologies, and an improved geopolitical environment.
Leveraging the world's most comprehensive industry supply chain, leading HJT and perovskite technologies, and cost advantages, Chinese photovoltaic companies have secured a favorable strategic position in the space-based PV sector.